According to the British "Financial Times" reported on January 21st, the economic situation of developing countries is improving, but the structural problems in the global trade still exist. In the past few years, the world economic turmoil, Brazil, Russia and Nigeria and other countries fell into recession, which also caused people's concern about the hard landing of China's economy. Now, emerging market countries are rising again, and will growth continue?
Investors seem to give an affirmative answer. After 5 years of bear market, the MSCI emerging market index has risen by 75% since early 2016, far more than the rise of 50% in the same period of developed markets.
The macroeconomic data also seemed to confirm this optimistic expectation. The world bank data show that although the growth rate of the developed economies is expected to slow from 2.3% last year to 2.2% in 2018, the growth rate of emerging economies and developing countries will rise from 4.3% to 4.5%.
But many analysts warn that the prospects for emerging markets are not bright.
"In the short term, these figures look pretty good, and the growth in emerging markets is hard to fall sharply in the first quarter. However, the economic downturn is coming faster than many people expect. We expect a downturn this year, and the growth of emerging markets will slow from 4.4% last year to 4.2% this year, and to 4% next year. Nair Schilling (Neil Shearing), the chief emerging market economist at Capital Economics, said.
Schilling believes that emerging market growth phenomenon, distracted attention on the "heterogeneous", that there are great differences between different emerging markets. Countries such as Brazil and Russia are in the early stages of the economic cycle, but smaller countries in central and Eastern Europe have gone far. China's economic growth is slowing as the Chinese government withdraws from the fiscal stimulus plan and tries to cool the overheated real estate market.
Adam Slater, chief economist of Oxford Economics, Adam Slater, said that although trade and economic improvement is widespread, there is no long-term change in Oxford. In fact, Global trade growth is in a structural recession. One of the reasons may be the stagnation of the globalization process, and the growth of the global supply chain may have reached its limits and may even be reversed. Although it is bad for trade, it may not be a bad thing for economic activity. Another fatal reason may be the rising trade protectionism.
The data of Global Trade Alert, which monitors global trade policy, shows that trade protectionism is indeed rising. In the past 3 years, the use of malicious interventions has increased.
Simon Evenett, Professor of international trade and economic development at University of St. Gallen, Switzerland, said that the use of export subsidy measures is also increasing, especially in the emerging market countries. Simon Ivennet, Since the subprime mortgage crisis, the volume of world trade has increased steadily, but the rate of price rise is not fast. Other exporters have to lower the price of goods and compete with the companies that receive the subsidy. This makes people worried about the future of emerging market exporters.
Taking into account the demographic factors, how long will the emerging markets continue as engine drivers of global economic growth? Slater pointed out that 15 years ago, the labor force of emerging markets grew at a rate of